Sistem Analisis Prediksi Harga Forx Menggunakan Indikator Non Farm Payroll AS
https://doi.org/10.36342/teika.v5i2.149
Abstrak
Abstrak
Pasar valuta aisng (forex market) adalah pasar terbesar dan memiliki transaksi keuangan terkomplek di dunia. Bermain di pasar ini dapat menghasilkan keuntungan finansil yang sangat besar namun memiliki resiko yang tinggi. Oleh karena itu banyak penelitian telah dilakukan untuk membantu para trader memprediksi harga pergerakan pasar valuta asing agar terhindar dari resiko kerugian, Pada penelitian ini, dibuat suatu aplikasi untuk memprediksi dampak dari suatu berita apakah akan menaikan harga atau sebaliknya. Berita yang diteliti
difokuskan kepada indikator fundamental non form payroll. Penelitian ini menggunakan pre processing POSTagger [1], sedangkan proses prediksi dibuat berdasarkan banyaknya kata yang sesuai pada suatu kelompok menggunakan algoritma brut force string match. Dari hasil penelitian didapati tingkat akurasi sebesar 60%, yaitu dengan menggunakan data latih sebesar 50 berita dan uji coba dengan 10 berita.
Â
Abstract
The foreign exchange market (forex market) is the largest and complex financial transactions in the world. Involved in this market can generate huge financial profits but also has a high risk. Therefore, research has been done to help traders predict the price movements of the foreign exchange market in order to avoid the risk of loss. In this study, an application has been made to predict the impact of news on whether to raise prices or otherwise . News are focused on fundamental indicators of non farm payroll. This study used a pre-processing POSTagger [1], while the predictions made based on the number of matches in a group using brut force algorithm strings match. The results found an accuracy rate of 60%, by using training data of 50 news and 10 trials of the news.
Unduhan
Referensi
Bank International Settlement Annual Report http://www.bis.org/publ/arpdf/ar2010e.htm
D. R. Lambert. Commodity channel index: Tool for trading cyclic trends. Commodities Magazine, 1:120-122.
G. Appel. The Moving Average Convergence-Divergence Method. Signaleft, Great Neck, NY, 1979.
Ming Hao Eng, Yang Li, Qing-Guo Wang, Tong Heng Lee,Forecast Forex With ANN Using Fundamental Data, International Conference on Information Management, Innovation Management and Industrial Engineering, 2008.
J. S. Abarbanell and B. J. Bushee, "Fundamental analysis, future earnings, and stock prices," Journal of Accounting Research, vol.35, 7998, p.1-24.
M. D. Beneish, C. M. C. Lee, and R. L. Tarpley, "Contextual Fundamental Analysis Through the Prediction of Extreme Retlrrns," Review Of Accounting Studies, vol.6, 2007, pp. 165-189.
L. Harris. Trading and Exchanges Market Microstructure for Practitioners. Oxford University Press, London, 2003.
M. Rosenberg. Currency Forecasting:A Guide To Fundamental and Technical Models of Exchange Rate Determination. Irwin Publishing, London, 1996.
Murphy. J., Technical Anatysis of the Financial Markets: A Comprehensive Guide to Trading Methods and Applicafions. Prentice Hall Press, N.Y., 1999
Jin Li and Edward P. K. Tsang. Improving technical analysis predictions: An application of genetic programming. In Proceedings of The 12th International Florida AI Research Society Conference, pages 108112,May 1-5 1999.
Zhihong Liu, An Automated Trading System with Multi-indicator Fusion Based on D-S Evidence Theory in Forex Market, In Proceedings of Sixth International Conference on Fuzzy Systems and Knowledge Discovery,2009.
Yungho Leu, Chien- Pang Lee and Yie Zu)ou, A distance-based fuzzy time series model for exchange rates forecasting, Expert Systems with Applications, Vol. 36, pp.8107-8114, MAY 2009.
Lixia Liu, Wenjing Wang, "Exchange Rates Forecasting with Least Squares Support Vector Machine", Proceeding of CSSE200B conference Wuhan, Hubei, December 2008
Tahseen Ahmed Jilani, Syed Muhammad Aqil Burney, "A refined fuzzy time series model for stock market forecasting", Physica A, Vol. 387, pp.2857-2862, MAY 2008.
Ching-Hsue Cheng, Tai-Liang. Chen, Hia Jong Teoh, Chen-Han. Chiang, "Fuzzy time-series based on adaptive expectation model for TAIEX forecasting", Expert Systems with Applications, Vol. 34, pp.17261132, DEC 2008.
Thomas Stridsman, Trading systems that work: building and evaluating effective trading systems, McGraw-Hill, New York, 2000
B. Freisleben. Stock market prediction with back propagation networks. In Industrial and Engineering Appliations of Artificial Intelligence and Expert System, pages 451-460, Paderborn, Germany, June 1992.5th International Conference.
K. J. Kim. Financial time series forecasting using support vector machines. Technical repoft, Neurocomputing, 2003.
K. Liu Davis, D.N. and Y. Luo. A multi-agent framework for stock trading. Technical report, 16th IFIT World Computing Congress, Beijing, China, 2000.
Arthur Hsu Yuzheng Zhai and Saman K Halgamuge. Combining news and technical indicators in daily stock price trends prediction. Masters thesis, University of Melboume, Victoria, Australia, 2007.
Shouyang Wang Lean Yu, Huanhuan Chen and Kin Keung Lai. Evolving least squares support vector machines for stock market trend mining. IEEE transactions on evolutionary computation, 13 (1), February 2009.
Powel B. Myszkowski and Adam Bicz. Evolotionary Algoftihm in Forex Trade Strategy Generation. Proceeding of The IMCSIT Vol 5, Poland, 2010.
Analisis Fundamental Available at: http://belajaforex.com/indikatorfundamental.html
M. M. Dacorogna, R. Gencay, U. Muller , R. B.Olsen, and O. V. Picktet, An Introduction to High Frequency Finance. Academic Press, San Diego, San Diego, 2001
Analisis Fundamental, Sumber : http://id.wikipedia.orglwiki/Analisis_fundamental
Alfan Farizki Wicakono, Ayu Purwarianti, HMM Based Part-of-Speech Tagger for Bahasa Indonesia, On Proceedings of 4th International MALINDO (Malay and Indonesian Language) Workshop, 2nd August 2010
Bo Pang and Lillian Lee (2008), Opinion Mining and Sentimen Analysis, Foundations and Trends in Information Retrieval.
Franky, Manurung R, (2008), Machine Learning based Sentimen Analysis of Automatic Indonesian Translations of English Movie Reviews, In Proceedings of the International Conference on Advanced Computational Intelligence and Its Applications 2008.
Harlili, Yudi Wibisono, Sistem Analisis Opini Microblogging Berbahasa indonesia.
##submission.downloads##
Diterbitkan
Cara Mengutip
Terbitan
Bagian
Lisensi
The submitting author warrants that the submission is original and that she/he is the author of the submission together with the named co-authors; to the extend the submission incorporates text passages, figures, data or other material from the work of others, the submitting author has obtained any necessary permission.
Articles in this journal are published under the Creative Commons Share Alike Attribution Licence (CC-BY-SA What does this mean?). This is to get more legal certainty about what readers can do with published articles, and thus a wider dissemination and archiving, which in turn makes publishing with this journal more valuable for you, the authors.
By submitting an article the author grants to this journal the non-exclusive right to publish it. The author retains the copyright and the publishing rights for his article without any restrictions.